If last year’s winter holiday travel season felt costly or chaotic, this year’s might seem even more so.

That’s because half of Americans (50%) plan to spend money on flights or hotel stays this holiday season, according to a new NerdWallet survey conducted online by The Harris Poll. The survey was based on responses from 2,057 adults collected Sept. 5-7, 2023.

That 50% figure is higher than last year when 44% of Americans said they’d planned to spend money on travel.

When will crowds be the biggest? Probably the Sunday after Thanksgiving. That was the busiest travel day in 2019, 2021 and 2022, according to a NerdWallet analysis of Transportation Security Administration data showing the number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints over the past four years. Travelers can expect 2023’s winter holiday travel season to follow suit.

The busiest travel days this holiday season

While half of Americans will travel for at least one of the winter holidays (and some will travel for more than one), some holidays prompt more activity than others.

According to NerdWallet’s survey, which defines “travel” as staying away from home for at least one night, regardless of whether it includes flights or hotel stays as opposed to driving or staying overnight with family or friends:

• 40% of Americans plan to travel for the December holidays (Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa).
• 29% plan to travel for Thanksgiving.
• 19% plan to travel for New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day.

If more Americans say they intend to travel for the December holidays compared with Thanksgiving, why does the latter tend to set the travel records? It largely comes down to timing.

Thanksgiving takes place on the fourth Thursday in November every year. Travelers tend to have the same itinerary, departing the Wednesday before the holiday and returning the Sunday after, creating the two busiest days to fly around Thanksgiving.

With Christmas, trend lines are more opaque because the holiday is on a different day of the week every year. Christmas in 2023 falls on a Monday. So, while Tuesdays and Wednesdays tend to be the best days to fly (meaning lower costs and smaller crowds), this year Tuesday, Dec. 26, might be unusually busy.

In fact, Dec. 26 may be the most expensive day to return in the week after Christmas this year, according to the 2023 Holiday Travel Outlook from the travel booking site Hopper. As far as busy travel days ahead of the holiday, expect the preceding Friday (Dec. 22 this year) to be among the worst days to fly ahead of Christmas.

What about people who aren’t traveling?

While about 50% of Americans plan to spend money on flights or hotel stays this holiday season, 39% say they don’t plan to spend money on holiday travel and 11% are undecided, according to NerdWallet’s survey.

For some, the decision not to travel is pretty straightforward. For example, 39% of those not traveling say it’s because their friends and family are local, and 10% are hosting others for the holidays.

Of those not spending money on flights or hotel stays this holiday season, 24% say it’s because they can’t afford it.

Planning to travel at the same time as everyone else

Traveling on peak days alongside everyone else brings more challenges than just longer airport security lines or the increased likelihood of sitting in the middle seat.

With that in mind, budget more time to get to your destination. Boarding may take longer, and airport lounges might be busier, if not full. If the airline cancels your flight, expect to compete with more people to get on the next available flight.

Seek ways to bypass the lines. For example, holding TSA PreCheck can help get you in expedited security lines (and you might even be able to get TSA PreCheck for free). Earning airline elite status can mean access to VIP lanes for things like checking baggage, while hotel elite status might get you into expedited check-in lanes.

And if that all sounds like too much, consider opting out of holiday travel entirely. Those 39% of people who don’t plan to spend money on flights and hotel stays this holiday season might be onto something.

Erin El Issa contributed to this report.

The article Get Ready for an Even Busier Holiday Travel Season in 2023 originally appeared on NerdWallet.

The year so far has given us a stock market filled with highs and lows, a flat bond market, high mortgage rates, rising interest rates and the global effects of wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Yet as with any year, a general financial review is necessary at year-end to stay focused on your financial goals and objectives. With that in mind, here are a few year-end topics that would be prudent to review:

Tax-loss harvesting

Tax-loss harvesting is an investing approach used for taxable accounts. Retirement accounts do not qualify.

To take advantage of tax-loss harvesting, consider selling select investments at a loss to help offset tax implications from other holdings that have generated taxable capital gains. Eligible investments aren’t limited to stocks or stock funds, which means losses from bonds and other asset classes can be used to offset gains as well.

Additionally, if losses are larger than gains, you can use the remaining losses to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary taxable income (for married couples filing separately, the limit is $1,500). Any amount over $3,000 can be carried forward to future tax years.

The impact of tax-loss harvesting can be significant for taxable account holders with high incomes. However, an investor selling securities as part of a tax-loss harvesting strategy should trade cautiously due to the Internal Revenue Service restriction known as the wash-sale rule. This states that if you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a “substantially identical” security within 30 days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes.

Required minimum distribution

Unless your retirement funds are in a Roth IRA, you may need to take the annual required minimum distribution from your individual retirement account by year-end. If your 70th birthday was before July 1, 2019, you began taking the RMD at age 70 ½. However, due to changes in federal law as part of the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (Secure 2.0) Act, which was signed into law in December of 2022, these rules changed for others.

In 2023, one change under Secure 2.0 was to delay RMDs from age 72 to begin at age 73 instead. This applies to people who were born between 1951 and 1959. People born in 1960 or later will not be required to take RMDs until age 75.

The distribution amount varies annually and is determined by an IRS table, the year-end balance of your account, and your age. If you miss the window to take your annual RMD, you will be subject to an IRS penalty of 25% of the RMD amount. Before Secure 2.0, this penalty was 50% of the amount of the RMD that was not withdrawn in the required year.

Roth IRA conversion

If your portfolio values are down this year, it may be a good time to convert some of your assets from an IRA to a Roth IRA.

Assets converted from an IRA to a Roth IRA are taxable as income in the year of the conversion. However, following the conversion, Roth IRAs are not subject to RMDs. Additionally, when the funds are distributed from a Roth IRA during retirement, the income is not taxable. Because IRA assets converted to a Roth IRA are taxable, discussing the tax ramifications with a tax adviser or CPA before the conversion would be best.

Inherited IRA RMD for non-spouse beneficiaries

An inherited IRA is an account that is opened when a person inherits an IRA after the original owner’s death. This may happen at the death of a spouse or when a child inherits their parent’s IRA. On Jan. 1, 2020, the IRS proposed changes for a non-spouse IRA beneficiary of a deceased owner who was subject to RMDs.

In 2022, the IRS proposed new guidance requiring the non-spouse beneficiary to take RMDs as well as empty the inherited IRA by the end of the 10th year. A final ruling was expected early this year. But in July, the IRS waived penalties on missed RMDs for 2023 and indicated that final guidance would not be available until 2024.

There are many rules for inherited IRAs and Roth IRAs. Don’t assume all rules for inheriting an IRA are the same for everyone. They are not. Your financial or tax adviser can help you manage your annual distributions.

Annual gifting

In 2023, an individual can give $17,000 to as many people as they want without reporting the gift on their tax return and paying additional tax. This is called the gift tax annual exclusion or exemption.

If the person is married, both individuals can give $17,000 for a total gift to any person of $34,000. This exemption applies to more than cash gifts. Forgiving debt and transferring stock are two other examples that would also qualify if the fair market value of the gift is under the annual limitation.

This amount is adjusted for inflation and can be given annually. Any amount over the annual gift tax exclusion limit is reportable to the IRS for the given tax year.

Cash donations to public charities

For individuals who can still itemize their deductions, this year you may deduct up to 60 percent of your adjusted gross income (AGI) for cash donations to public charities. One caveat is that the 60 percent deduction applies only to cash that is donated to qualified public charities. If you choose to donate non-cash assets to public charities, the deduction falls to a limit of 30 percent of your AGI.

Gifting appreciated securities to public charities

Donating long-term, highly appreciated taxable securities—that is, stocks, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have realized significant appreciation over time—to nonprofit organizations is one of the most tax-efficient ways to give. You receive a tax deduction for the full value of the gift without having to pay the capital gains you would have paid if you sold the securities.

Also, you can significantly increase the amount of funds available for charitable giving because you are not paying capital gains taxes on the gift. In other words, you are giving the full value of the security, not the after-tax net value.

Assets held for one year before they are gifted reap the following benefits:

— Capital gains taxes are avoided on the future sale of the securities.

— A tax deduction is received for the full fair market value of the securities, up to 30 percent of your AGI.

Most banks and brokerage firms can assist you with this transaction but will require you to sign a letter of instruction to transfer the shares to a charity. Do not wait until the last week of December to begin this task, or it may not happen in 2023.

This tax deduction is only relevant if you itemize your deductions on your tax return. If the sum of your deductions falls below $13,850 for single filers or $27,700 for joint filers, this strategy will not help reduce your taxes.

Qualified charitable deductions

At the end of 2015, lawmakers approved a permanent measure allowing individuals who are 70 1/2 years old or older to make qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) directly from their IRAs to their favorite qualified charities.

In addition to the well-known benefits of giving to charity, a QCD offers this additional benefit: the donated amount is excluded from taxable income, unlike regular withdrawals from an IRA, which are taxed as ordinary income. A lower income may also help reduce your Medicare premiums, which are income based.

As year-end approaches, remember that markets will always be unpredictable, and the volatility experienced in the past few years will be no exception. Take the time to review your financial situation with your adviser and implement the strategies you can control before the year is over. When you actively manage your finances and plan for your future, the feeling of personal financial empowerment is justly earned.

Note: This column is intended to be informational only and does not constitute legal, accounting or tax advice.

Teri Parker is a vice president for CAPTRUST Financial Advisors. She has practiced in the field of financial planning and investment management since 2000. Reach her via email at Teri.parker@captrustadvisors.com.

Black Friday is Nov. 24 this year. Retailers thrive on tantalizing shoppers ahead of the post-Thanksgiving event, keeping them guessing about how exactly the experience will unfold. But economic conditions, past sales and other factors can provide clues about what’s to come.

Here’s what marketing, retail and supply chain experts expect for Black Friday 2023.

Shoppers and retailers may scale back

“A lot of macroeconomic indicators are pointing to a big slowdown in spending,” says Jeff Galak, associate professor of marketing at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business. Signs include record-high consumer credit card debt — balances reached over $1 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — a reduced personal savings rate and the increased cost of goods due to inflation, Galak says.

Consumers are feeling the pinch. Some 2023 shoppers say they plan to purchase gifts for fewer people this holiday season (31%) or spend less on gifts per person (30%) compared with past years, according to the 2023 Holiday Shopping Report from NerdWallet.

Retailers are facing pressures too, which likely means smaller markdowns for Black Friday, Galak says. “Their supply chains are also pushing prices higher, so it’s not like there’s an infinite amount that they can discount whatever the latest television is. There’s still a floor, and that floor is going up.”

Sales will persist

While Black Friday prices probably won’t reach all-time lows, shoppers will find deals galore. In fact, many retailers have been in holiday sales mode since the beginning of October. Among the early entries: Walmart Deals Holiday Kickoff, which ran from Oct. 9 through 12, and Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days on Oct. 10 and 11.

These events preview the products and discounts shoppers might find during Black Friday sales. For example, Amazon and Walmart discounted Apple Airpods Pro (2nd generation) from $249 to $189, the lowest price so far this year.

Retailers bring out some of their best sales when they know customers are most prone to shop. Black Friday remained the most popular shopping day of Thanksgiving weekend in 2022, notes Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation. “It does seem that even with the early start to the shopping season, consumers do still very much look to Thanksgiving weekend for a sense of tradition,” she says.

Expect additional chances to save money as holiday deals continue past November. But if you spot a price that suits your budget, it may be worth buying early.

Deliveries could face interruptions

Lingering effects from a weekslong autoworkers strike could create shipping delays for holiday shoppers and retailers, as could a federal government shutdown.

Logistical problems stemming from the United Auto Workers strike could cause delivery issues if trucks can’t get parts needed for repairs, says Rob Handfield, a professor of supply chain management at North Carolina State University’s Poole College of Management.

The U.S. government narrowly escaped a shutdown in September, but funding lasts only through Nov. 17 — one week before Black Friday.

“We rely on a lot of government services to make supply chains work: Customs and Border [Protection], a lot of the regulatory agencies, the FAA,” Handfield says. “If there’s a government shutdown and some of those agencies are impacted, it’s going to impact import/exports, it could impact our rail system, it could impact our transportation system.”

Still, experts don’t expect the same level of supply chain disruptions as in the past couple of years.

Retailers have taken steps to diversify their supply chains and work around external shocks, Cullen says. “Oftentimes, they’ve moved up the lead times for holiday inventory for key events. Also, a longer shopping season gives more runway for consumers to come back and find items that may have been in short stock early in the season.”

Cullen adds that retailers have been increasingly transparent about what’s in stock, where it’s available and how long deliveries might take, which can help shoppers decide what to buy and when.

Shoppers have more time to make returns

Black Friday shoppers may get accommodations when it comes to making returns.

Many major retailers relax return policies or extend return windows around the holidays. Walmart, which normally has a 90-day return limit, will allow most purchases made from Oct. 1, 2023, to Dec. 31, 2023, to be returned through Jan. 31, 2024. Target won’t start its 30-day return clock until Dec. 26 for electronics and entertainment items purchased from Oct. 1 to Dec. 24.

Some consumers can even get a refund without leaving their cars or their homes.

Target rolled out free drive-up returns in time for holiday shopping. The service lets shoppers initiate a return in the app and complete the transaction in the store’s parking lot.

Uber also recently launched a “Return a Package” feature allowing people to send up to five packages via courier to a local post office, UPS or FedEx location for a $5 maximum fee.

Read return policy and service details before you shop Black Friday sales to better understand your options.

This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press.

The article Black Friday Shopping Could Look Different This Year, Experts Say originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Retailers like Amazon, Target and Walmart pushed October sales as an early start to the holiday shopping season again this year. But only about a quarter of Amazon Prime Big Deal Days shoppers used the Oct. 10-11 event to buy holiday gifts, according to a survey of verified buyers from market research firm Numerator.

The rest might be waiting for Black Friday (Nov. 24 this year) to get the gift list going.

If that’s you, here’s a short list of what to buy (or skip) during the traditional start to holiday shopping, which is the sale period that includes Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 23), Black Friday and Cyber Monday (Nov. 27).

Buy: TVs and big-ticket tech

This one is no secret, but you may be looking for confirmation: Black Friday is still the “sweet spot” for TVs, says Trae Bodge, shopping expert from truetrae.com. “Yes, we saw some TVs on sale over Amazon [Prime Big Deal Days], but I really think that we’ll see better deals over Black Friday.”

Expect discounts on electronics like laptops, wireless headphones and soundbars at all the usual big-box stores. And if you need more time to save for the right size and model TV, the next best time to buy is around the Super Bowl.

Skip (for a couple of weeks): Toys and holiday decor

Toys aren’t off limits on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but you may save more if you wait a couple of weeks for when retailers start to sweat. It’s better to hold off on holiday decorations too, if you can.

Bodge says there’ll be better prices on kids’ toys and holiday decorations as December wears on. “I like to wait on those things because as we get closer to the Christmas holidays, that’s when retailers are going to be scrambling to get rid of that stuff to clear space for the new year,” she says.

Buy: Small kitchen appliances

NerdWallet’s latest holiday sale price-tracking data shows Black Friday and Cyber Monday bring great deals on kitchen gadgets. Prices on the three kitchen items NerdWallet watched since late last year — which included a Ninja air fry oven, KitchenAid mixer and Nespresso coffee machine — hit bottom dollar last Cyber Monday.

The price of the KitchenAid Classic Series 4.5-Quart Tilt-Head Stand Mixer, for example, dropped to $220.99 at Target (down from its $329.99 retail price) last Cyber Monday.

Skip: Sporting goods

Some sporting goods are hard to wrap and hide. That may be reason enough to wait until closer to Christmas. Another reason is based on data from software company Adobe’s holiday season forecast for online shopping. The company, which analyzes U.S. e-commerce transactions across many retailers, predicts Dec. 4 will be the best day to get geared up for sports.

“Historically the best pricing for these items tends to be during the first week of December as older inventory clears and new personal fitness equipment and other sporting goods become available,” said Vivek Pandya, group manager at Adobe Digital Insights, in an email.

Buy: Winter apparel

In a bit of a twist, Bodge says Black Friday may bring better buys on winter clothes than are typically expected, possibly due to the weather staying warmer longer in many regions. Retailers fearing they’ll have too much supply could move sales on parkas, beanies and sweaters up to Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

“[It’s] notable because, in my experience, winter apparel is most deeply discounted in December,” says Bodge.

So, look for layers while you’re browsing for clothes with a hot beverage Black Friday morning.

Skip (maybe): Tools and home improvement items

Many major product categories are fair game for good discounts on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but you may want to double-check the price history before you order a new drill or circular saw.

“Tools and home improvement equipment tend to lag behind [other categories] in the percentage of discounts during the holiday season,” said Pandya.

That’s not to say all deals on tools won’t be good enough. If you’re unsure, try a coupon-finding browser extension like PayPal Honey or Rakuten, or a site like Camelcamelcamel.com, which tracks product prices over time.

You can always look to June, around Father’s Day, to buy tools.

Holiday shopping tips

Comparing prices and doing your research will certainly help you save money this holiday season, but make sure you consider how you’ll manage expenses too.

Read up before you buy now, pay later

Many shoppers will rely on credit for their purchases. Adobe’s forecast predicts record use of “buy now, pay later” options — an estimated $17 billion in online spending to fund purchases during the holiday season.

When you can adhere to the payment schedule, Bodge says, BNPL is like “the modern layaway.” “It’s a great way to spread out your financial outlay for a particular month,” she says.

She also recommends that those newer to the concept read the fine print before signing up, because late payments can lead to late fees, which could negate any discounts realized.

NerdWallet’s 2023 holiday shopping report found 52% of Americans incurred credit card debt when shopping last holiday season and, among them, nearly a third (31%) have still not paid off those balances.

“If you’re dragging credit card debt month to month, you should maybe use debit only or just cash,” says Bodge.

Check your feelings at checkout

With the holiday season comes pressure to make others happy, reminds Bodge.

The holiday shopping report found that more than half of 2023 holiday shoppers said holiday shopping stresses them out.

You have to block out the urge to keep up with the Joneses and try to buy within your means, says Bodge.

“Be mindful of your own personal financial situation and gift accordingly.”

The article What to Buy (and Skip) on Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2023 originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Four days are left until the government faces another shutdown.

A government shutdown would stop or reduce operations for national parks, benefits verification, food inspections and more. It would also send millions of federal workers home without pay for the duration.

All that is on the line unless Congress passes crucial budget appropriations or agrees on another funding extension. The latter may be more likely with this bunch.

What you need to know

• Congress must fund 12 key appropriation bills in order to fund the government for its new fiscal year, which began Oct. 1.
• A last-minute stopgap was passed Sept. 30 and extended government funding through Nov. 17.
• Come Nov. 18, the government shuts down.
• The looming shutdown is a test for newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said at a press conference Tuesday that the House GOP conference “had a very refreshing, constructive, family conversation” on the options on the table to prevent a shutdown. He added that they would “be revealing what our plan is in short order.”
• Senate Democrats are reportedly working on their own funding measure. Last week, the Senate passed a package of three government funding bills for the 2024 fiscal year.

Why you should care

• Shutdowns are disruptive for the federal government at large. For consumers, a government shutdown could result in various problems and inconveniences.
• Unless you work for the federal government, a government shutdown might not have an immediate impact on you.

What happens during a shutdown

• Nonessential services like national parks, customer service for the IRS and Federal Student Aid assistance will be suspended.
• Essential services like air traffic control, national security, law enforcement, and power grid maintenance continue to operate.
• Some essential services like benefit verifications for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid; food and environmental inspections; scientific research; and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may have reduced operations.
• If you have travel plans, a shutdown could get in your way.
• It could hamper your homebuying plans if you are trying to get a reverse mortgage or Title I loan insured by the Federal Housing Administration or a loan from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
• The brunt of the disruption would fall on furloughed government workers. But all federal workers go without pay during a shutdown even if they’re not furloughed. Federal workers are paid retroactively once funding is restored.

The basics

• There have been 21 government shutdowns since 1976, and most ended in under a week,  according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
• When Congress passes some of the required appropriations, but not all of them, it results in a partial shutdown.
•  The most recent shutdown, which was partial, lasted 34 days beginning in December 2018.

What happens next

• House Republicans say they’re aiming to bring a bill to the floor next week. It would likely be a continuing resolution.
• Senate Democrats are working on their own stopgap bill.
• However, lawmakers will balk at any continuing resolution that goes beyond Dec. 31, thanks to the Fiscal Responsibility Act that was passed in spring. It includes a provision that says if a continuing resolution is in effect come Jan. 1, then the spending limit revises on its own — and that automatic revision includes a significant cut to defense, which would be at odds with House Republicans’ efforts to increase defense spending.

More From NerdWallet

The article Government Shutdown Looms Yet Again: What You Need to Know originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Entering the holiday season with high-interest debt or financial struggles can put you at risk for a debt hangover that could linger for years.

It’s a crossroads that many will unfortunately encounter this holiday season. Credit card balances rose to over $1 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The average rate for credit cards assessed interest as of August 2023 was 22.77%, according to data by the Federal Reserve. Compared with previous years, that rate is alarmingly high.

With interest rates sky-high, this is one of the worst times to charge expenses to credit cards that you can’t pay off quickly. Before you shop for the holidays, consider these ways to help you get clear on your goals and protect your finances.

1. Find a way to lower high-interest debt

If you’re already carrying debt, consider ways to save money on interest. Depending on your credit, some options may include:

• A 0% introductory APR balance transfer credit card: This card lets you move debt onto it from a different account to get the lower interest rate. The ideal card has no annual fee and a balance transfer fee of 3% or lower. Compare the cost of the fee with the projected interest payments on your current card to determine if it’s worth paying.
• A personal loan: For multiple debt balances, a personal loan that consolidates debts into a single low-interest fixed payment can simplify your finances.
• A debt management plan: If you’re struggling to keep up with bills, a counselor at an accredited nonprofit credit counseling agency can determine your eligibility for a debt management plan that consolidates balances into a single low-interest fixed payment, for a fee. A lower interest rate is possible because these organizations have relationships with creditors, says Madison Block, a product marketing manager at American Consumer Credit Counseling.

Also explore your budget for opportunities to save, removing unnecessary expenses and swapping others for less costly alternatives. Then put any savings toward your debt, and contribute enough money each month to pay it down by the desired deadline. Commit to prioritizing your debt over the holiday season and tailor your purchases to facilitate that goal.

2. Create a holiday list

Building holiday spending into your year-round budget is a good way to prepare for seasonal expenses. But even if you know how much you have to spend, holiday shopping can overstuff your budget quickly if you’re not careful. One simple but powerful tool can help. Make a list and use the amount you have available to determine how much to spend on gifts, decorations, food, travel and any other holiday purchases.

Every Christmas, Lizbet Barajas, a Texas resident, sticks to a holiday list of expenses to stay on track with her goal to pay down student loan debt. With her husband, she budgets for gifts year-round for two kids, ages 3 and 6, and both sides of their family.

“Having that list early on makes it easier to know exactly what I’m buying them without having to do last-minute shopping, which then causes you to overspend,” says Barajas, a content creator of the YouTube channel Lizbet Talks Money.

Robyn Goldfarb, a Florida resident and blogger at A Dime Saved, also budgets year-round for Hanukkah to avoid taking on debt. With her husband, she budgets $50 per gift for their three kids, ages 2 to 10, and she only gives gifts on one of the eight nights of Hanukkah.

“One night we’ll do donuts, one night we’ll do cookies, so there’s something exciting happening every night, but it’s not necessarily a gift or something expensive,” she says.

3. Explore money-saving alternatives

Consider which expenses are negotiable and which aren’t. If necessary, stretch your dollars by changing expectations with friends and family this year. With prices still high due to inflation, they might welcome a more budget-friendly option, like a potluck, a secret gift exchange, gifts for kids only or a price limit for gifts.

Supplementing your income over the holiday season can also help you avoid debt for those must-have purchases.

“One thing people can do is potentially take on a seasonal part-time job or a side hustle,” Block says. “If you have some unused items or old furniture or things around your house that you aren’t even using, selling that on Facebook Marketplace or Craigslist could be potentially a good way to get a little bit of extra cash for the holiday season.”

Creativity can also lead to savings. It’s how Goldfarb saves on decorations.

“I’ll have my kids make things and I save them from year to year,” Goldfarb says. “There are so many ideas online.”

4. Set guardrails to stick to your budget

Switching your payment method temporarily to debit or cash can protect finances from debt. In previous holiday seasons, Barajas used a version of the cash envelope system to stay on track. By having an envelope with a fixed amount of money for every categorized holiday expense, like gifts, meals and travel, you can prevent overspending.

“It’s more visual,” Barajas says.

5. Look for deals

Scavenge for the best deals. Using browser extensions or apps, like Honey, Flipp or CouponCabin, may help you find coupons or potential savings on different items. Some large retailers such as Amazon, Walmart and Best Buy also have online outlets and open-box deals that may offer items at lower costs. Compare prices to know if it’s a good deal.

The article 5 Moves to Prevent More Debt This Holiday Season originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Most weeks of the year, Friday is the busiest day for air travel, and Tuesday is the least busy day. During the holidays, though, that doesn’t necessarily hold true.

In most years, the Sunday after Thanksgiving is the busiest travel day at U.S. airports, according to the Transportation Security Administration, which tracks the number of passengers screened daily. The two days after Christmas also see heavy travel. And since Christmas falls on a Monday this year, that might mean an abnormally busy Tuesday and Wednesday of that week.

To avoid crowds and save money, consider skipping the busy days and book your flights on one of the slower ones. Here’s a breakdown of the best and worst days to fly during the winter holidays, and how you can strategize to avoid crowds and save money.

The busiest days to fly around Thanksgiving

The Sunday after Thanksgiving is brutal for airport crowds. Last year, about 83% more people flew on the Sunday after Thanksgiving than on Thanksgiving Day, according to TSA data, making it the busiest travel day of 2022.

That same Sunday was also the year’s single busiest airport travel day in both 2019 and 2021. In 2020, the busiest days of the year for air travel were largely concentrated in January and February, before the widespread impact of COVID-19, which would reduce holiday travel later in the year.

Here’s a look at the three busiest days to fly in the seven calendar dates before and after Thanksgiving over the past four years, based on TSA checkpoint data:

And here are the three least busy days to fly in that period:

Assuming past trends continue in 2023, expect Sunday, Nov. 26, to be the busiest travel day around Thanksgiving, followed by Wednesday, Nov. 22. Even if you fly out one day ahead of the biggest crowds, Saturday, Nov. 25, will also likely be busy.

And this year, crowds will likely be bigger based on the fact that past 2023 holidays have already set air travel records. For example, 2023’s Fourth of July weekend set records for U.S. air travel. More than 2.884 million people passed through TSA checkpoints on the Friday before July 4, according to TSA checkpoint data. That topped the previous record, which was on the Sunday after Thanksgiving 2019, when a recorded 2.882 million people passed through TSA checkpoints.

The busiest days to fly around Christmas

Christmas airport crowds can be trickier to predict than Thanksgiving crowds given that the holiday falls on a different day of the week each year and air travel patterns are often dictated by the workweek. This year, Christmas falls on a Monday.

But just as the Sunday after Thanksgiving tends to draw huge crowds, the days just after Christmas are wildly popular. And much like how few people travel on Thanksgiving Day itself, relatively few people travel on Christmas Day or New Year’s Day.

Here’s a look at the three busiest days to fly in the seven calendar dates before and after Christmas over the past four years, based on TSA checkpoint data:

And here are the three least busy days to fly in that period:

This year, you might expect Friday, Dec. 22, to be particularly busy. Friday is typically the busiest travel day in any given week, and — especially during Christmas week — many holiday travelers may leave on that day.

According to Chase Travel, Friday, Dec. 22, is one of the top three busiest days across all flights booked in either December 2023 or January 2024 (the other two busiest days are Saturday, Dec. 23, and Saturday, Dec. 30). Similarly, booking site Hopper anticipates that day having the highest fare for the Christmas season.

This holiday travel season may see some relief, though. Hanukkah, which begins on the 25th of Kislev in the Hebrew calendar, can sometimes align closely with Christmas. The eight-day celebration ran from Dec. 18-26 in 2022, but this year will commence on Dec. 15 — likely before the Christmas crowds start.

Another consideration for travel is that the weeklong celebration of Kwanzaa runs from Dec. 26 through Jan. 1.

How to choose less crowded (and cheaper) travel days

The holiday travel season is always expensive, but there is some decrease from last year’s prices. Airfares for Christmas trips are averaging $400 according to Hopper data. That’s down 12%, or about $52 per ticket, from last year. The bad news is that it’s still 29% higher than holiday airfares were in 2019.

Travel on the holiday: Traveling on the holiday is often the best way to avoid crowds and save money. Last year, 23.4% more people flew on the day after Christmas versus Christmas Day, which fell on a Sunday.

And that demand has a strong effect on prices. According to Hopper, domestic flights on Christmas Day average about 26% less than peak prices.

Book morning flights: If you are traveling on the holiday, catch the first flight out for the day and you might arrive in time for evening festivities. Taking early flights is also considered good practice to reduce your odds of a flight delay. In the first half of 2023, 7.8% of flights were delayed because an aircraft arrived late, according to Bureau of Transportation Statistics data.

Stay longer: If you can take the days off or work remotely, then it can make sense to fly as long before or after a holiday as possible.

For Thanksgiving, Hopper recommends flying the Monday of Thanksgiving week and returning any weekday the following week. The Sunday after Thanksgiving is historically the busiest day to fly, so extending your trip by just one day can save you money. According to Hopper, airfares average 40% less on the Monday after Thanksgiving versus the Sunday after.

For Christmas, Hopper recommends departing the Monday or Tuesday before Christmas weekend and returning midweek following the holiday.

Skip holiday travel completely: If you don’t mind celebrating in an unconventional way, consider participating in something like an un-holiday, where you shift the celebration by a couple of days or weeks.

The article The Busiest Days to Fly During the Winter Holidays originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Holiday travel can be taxing even without the added stress of disruptions such as cancellations, flight delays or lost bags.

Last winter, Southwest Airlines’ holiday travel meltdown left millions of travelers stranded and angry. Travelers were still filing for compensation for ruined trips weeks later. Consumer complaints against U.S. airlines to the Department of Transportation in February 2023 increased sixfold compared with February 2019, forcing the agency to temporarily stop reporting more data as it processes complaints.

Despite the chaos, holiday travel shows no signs of slowing down this year. About 50% of Americans plan to pay for flights or hotel stays this holiday season, according to a NerdWallet survey conducted by The Harris Poll in September among over 2,000 U.S. adults. They will be referred to as “2023 holiday travelers” going forward.

More than a third of 2023 holiday travelers (35%) say they will keep their usual holiday travel plans this year, regardless of expense. And given the rising cost of gas, a quarter (25%) of those traveling say they’re flying rather than driving.

If you’re determined to get your dose of festive cheer, you may wonder if it’s worth paying extra for travel insurance this year. The survey found that 21% of 2023 holiday travelers plan on buying or have already bought travel insurance for their holiday trips, up from 16% last year.

Is flying truly worse?

The post-pandemic travel surge is real. But has the flying experience honestly gotten worse? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

The Department of Transportation releases reports on the performance of the 10 largest airlines and their marketing carriers. An analysis of data through June 2023 (which, it should be noted, doesn’t capture the complete picture of summer travel) by the U.S. PIRG Education Fund found:

• The number of airline passengers for the first half of 2023 increased by 11%, to 419.2 million, compared with 2022. That’s almost back to 2019 pre-pandemic levels (419.7 million).

• On-time performance for flights in June fell to 71.3%, worse than a year ago. The on-time rate for the first half of 2023, at 76.5%, was slightly better than in 2022, but worse than in 2019.

• Flights are fuller this year than they were before the pandemic. More than 419 million passengers traveled in both the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2019. There were, however, fewer flights operated in 2023 — nearly 3.5 million compared with nearly 3.9 million in 2019 — meaning the same number of travelers had fewer flight options.

• The flight cancellation rate in June fell to 2.1%, better than a year ago. The cancellation rate for the first half of 2023, at 1.6%, was half of what it was in 2022 and better than in 2019.

So, while travel returns to pre-pandemic levels, travelers have fewer flight options. Given those gloomy statistics, travel insurance is at least worth considering this year.

Insurance aside, one way to lower the risk of disrupted travel is by adjusting when or how you fly. Nearly 2 in 5 2023 holiday travelers (35%) in the NerdWallet survey plan to avoid busy travel days by extending the duration of their holiday trips.

» Learn more: The busiest days to fly during the winter holidays

What type of travel insurance should you get?

The type of insurance you should buy depends on a few factors, including:

• Whether your trip is nonrefundable.
• Where you’re going.
• If your credit card has built-in protection.
• What your health coverage is at the destination.

Let’s assume you’re traveling domestically and already have health insurance coverage. Depending on your age and health, you may not have to pay extra for medical coverage. Note that only some travel insurance policies cover pre-existing conditions.

Some travel credit cards offer basic trip cancellation or interruption, baggage delay coverage and rental car coverage up to a certain dollar amount. If you think the options your credit card provides are good enough, you won’t need additional coverage.

If you don’t have a credit card with built-in protection or the limits aren’t high enough for you, look into buying a stand-alone travel insurance policy.

You can opt for the trip insurance your airline offers, buy it directly from an insurance provider or get it via an online travel agency such as Expedia. You can also compare quotes from travel insurance marketplaces you can find online. The cost of your policy will depend on the details of your trip.

Flying home for the holidays may not get any better this year, but having travel insurance could give you some comfort during your trip.

The article Should You Buy Travel Insurance for Holiday Travel? originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Consumers and investors were spared from a 12th rate hike when Federal Reserve officials voted in November to keep their benchmark borrowing rate steady.

Don’t take the pause as an indication that officials are ready to sound the all-clear on their firefight against inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s main message after the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) November rate decision was that officials are not yet sure they’ve raised interest rates enough to quell inflation. That’s even as the Fed’s key borrowing benchmark sits at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%.

In economic projections last updated in September, officials indicated to Fed watchers that one more increase is on the table for this year. If approved, the move would bring the Fed’s key benchmark interest rate to a new 22-year high of 5.5%-5.75%. It could also possibly be the last rate hike. Just one official sees rates rising higher than that next year, those projections show.

Those projections, however, can prove to be fleeting in an uncertain economic environment. Officials are slated to refresh those estimates at their last meeting of the year in December.

Higher rates mean more expensive borrowing costs. Following the Fed’s moves in lockstep are the prices consumers pay to borrow money, whether it’s the price of financing a purchase on a credit card or the cost of taking out an auto loan.

But that uncertainty is two-sided. Just as officials aren’t confident that interest rates are high enough, they also aren’t convinced that they need to raise interest rates again at all.

“We haven’t made any decisions about future meetings,” Powell repeated at the Fed’s post-meeting press conference. “It’s fair to say that the question we’re asking is: Should we hike more?”

The Fed has been lifting borrowing costs with a purpose: Officials are trying to cool down an overheated post-pandemic economy that contributed to the hottest inflation in generations.

Fed officials are seeing some progress in stabilizing prices, but the job isn’t over yet. Hotter gas prices contributed to a pick up in inflation for two straight months this summer, with prices now stuck at a 3.7% annual growth rate since August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s latest reading.

Overall inflation can be more volatile because of fluctuating food and energy prices. Yet, if those prices rise for long enough, they could add to the Fed’s headaches. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said households experience food and energy inflation most, making it an important driver of their expectations for where prices end up in the future.

Powell has also reiterated that how fast prices excluding food and energy — so-called “core” inflation — rise is the better indicator of underlying inflation. That gauge has fallen more than 2 percentage points from its peak but is still about two times higher than the Fed’s target, giving Fed officials another reason to remain on guard.

After the Fed decides whether it’s raised interest rates high enough, next comes the task of determining how long to keep interest rates at that historically high level — a debate that policymakers may be hesitant to let markets in on, out of fear that it could prematurely loosen financial conditions.

Should the Fed raise rates again? Past experience is igniting the U.S. central bank’s hawkishness

Experts say the risks of pulling back too soon and kickstarting another vicious inflation spiral remain higher than the risks of doing too much. The Fed’s failure to slow the economy enough and stomp out inflation in the 1970s led to a painful recession in the 1980s.

“The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability because the record is clear on that,” Powell said in September. “It can be a miserable period to have inflation constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again.”

The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowing. Job growth last month rose by the slowest pace since June, with employers adding 150,000 jobs in the month. But that slowdown isn’t looking worrisome yet. Even with the Fed raising interest rates a whopping 525 basis points since March 2022, unemployment is still at historic lows below 4%.

The job market’s strength is giving workers time to make up some of the ground that they lost to inflation, though their paychecks haven’t fully recovered yet.

Fed officials hope it suggests they can gradually cool prices without hurting the job market. But the ultimate fear is it could contribute to more inflation.

On the back of the still-strong job market, consumer spending is helping drive the economy. Consumption in September rose 0.7% from the previous month, the fastest pace in six months, according to data from the Department of Commerce. A red-hot summer of spending helped the financial system grow by the fastest rate — 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023 — since 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) figures show.

Economists say signaling another rate hike is more about giving the Fed options.

“It’s important for the Fed at the moment to have all the options on the table,” says Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM. “All of those meetings will be live, meaning the Fed will have the options of whether to pause or hike.”

Investors aren’t convinced the Fed will raise rates again — and some economists agree

Investors aren’t convinced the Fed will be able to follow through. Even as the Fed signaled it hasn’t made its mind up yet, most market participants still predominantly assume the Fed is done, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

So do some prominent Wall Street firms and their economists, from Morgan Stanley to Moody’s Analytics.

One reason why the Fed might end up going on a prolonged pause is simply because the U.S. economy hasn’t caught up to higher rates just yet. Experts say it may take a year for the full effect of a rate hike to hit the job market. Hiring is often the last shoe to drop. A year ago, rates had just been pushed past the so-called “neutral” rate of interest, or the point where borrowing costs are no longer stimulating economic growth.

Some economists say raising rates is akin to driving a car down the road while looking out of the rearview mirror. Data is backward-looking, and the Fed may find it’s done too much to slow the economy when it’s too late. While the economy had a blockbuster third quarter, it could also be the last hurrah before higher rates come to crash the party. Historically, the Fed hasn’t been able to raise rates without triggering a recession very often.

“Not only is it a concern, but the odds favor it,” McBride says, referring to a recession. “Look at the last three [tightening] cycles: Two of them ended in recessions, and the one that didn’t was an economic slowdown, where they had to reverse course and start cutting rates. History is not on their side.”

Another reason to be cautious, the Fed can keep squeezing the economy without raising rates. What often does the trick is if the “real” cost of money — meaning the difference between interest rates and overall inflation — is on the rise. The Fed’s key benchmark rate has been higher than inflation since May.

“If the Fed continues to raise rates in an environment in which inflation is coming down, that creates more pain for aggregate demand and more pain for the economy,” says Jordan Jackson, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Then, you run the risk of further exacerbating a downward movement in inflation. … You’re in a situation where you could be looking at outright deflation.”

Fed officials are also mindful of bank failures from last March, which demonstrate that risks can pop up out of nowhere and without much notice. A massive surge in long-term interest rates — with the 10-year Treasury yield crushing new 16-year highs in October — could also do some of the Fed’s work for it.

To top the balance of risks off, the threat of a possible government shutdown could make it harder for the Fed to track just how much these varying forces are impacting inflation. The government agencies that produce the consumer price index (CPI), personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index and employment situation reports would be on furlough until the gridlock is resolved.

How the Fed navigates the pros and cons of future rate moves depends primarily on the FOMC’s point of view — and how they decide to weigh the conflicting backdrop.

“If you’re balancing risks and you get less worried about the economy slowing and more worried about inflation just staying high and getting built into the price and wage-setting process, then you might conclude you need to move faster,” says Bill English, a finance professor at the Yale School of Management, who spent 20 years at the Fed. “Lags just make the problem harder because you have to be forward-looking and judge where the economy is going to be.”

5 steps to take with your money when rates and recession risks are high

Another increase means higher borrowing costs for consumers, including on credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and more. And even if central bankers are done raising rates, those interest rates are unlikely to fall until the Fed cuts its borrowing benchmark — a move that U.S. central bankers think still remains off in the distance.

The highest rates in more than two decades mean that money is no longer cheap. In this new era of monetary policy, these are the important moves you should be making with more money.

1. Keep a long-term mindset

Differing expectations about what the Fed could do with rates in the months ahead could lead to more market volatility. Plunging stocks mean pain for investors, and the possibility of a recession or even higher Fed interest rates could worsen the volatility. But don’t succumb to market volatility and change your approach. Remember, a diversified portfolio and a long-term mindset protect you through the most brutal times in the stock market.

2. Pay down debt

Consumers with fixed-rate debt, commonly on loans such as mortgages, won’t feel any impact when the Fed raises rates. But Americans are more fragile if they have a variable-rate loan, especially if it’s debt on a high-interest credit card. The average credit card rate is hovering at the highest levels ever recorded, thanks to the Fed’s recent inflation fight, according to Bankrate data.

Consider consolidating that debt with a balance-transfer card to help you make a bigger dent in your principal balance, with some cards offering borrowers 0% introductory annual percentage rates (APRs) for up to 21 months. However, the time to take advantage may be now. Consumers may find it tougher to get approved for one of these offers — or issuers may get rid of them altogether — if the economy ever takes a turn for the worse.

Homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) might want to consider refinancing into a fixed-rate loan. “You don’t want to be a sitting duck for higher interest rates on your credit card or home equity line of credit,” McBride says. Home equity lines of credit have also historically been a cheaper way to borrow money, but that’s now looking like a relic of a low-rate era with HELOC rates now pushing 9%.

3. Boost your emergency savings

With the economic outlook uncertain, now’s an important time to take a careful look at your finances and find ways to boost your emergency fund if you don’t already have the recommended six to nine months’ worth of expenses stashed away. But the silver-lining to rising rates: Savers can find the best yields in over a decade that can even help them grow their purchasing power, with many yields at online banks now beating inflation.

4. Find the best place for your cash

Savers can earn even more money on their cash by switching to a high-yield savings account. Many accounts on the market are offering consumers who bank with them yields near 5%. If you put an initial $10,000 deposit into an account with a 5% annual percentage yield (APY), you’d earn $500 in interest, compared with just $60 on the average savings yield of 0.60%.

Consumers who already have an emergency fund may even want to start thinking about locking in those elevated yields for the longer haul by opening a 2-year or 5-year certificate of deposit. Savings account yields are variable, and banks often don’t wait for the Fed to cut rates before lowering their own yields.

5. Think about recession-proofing your finances

Given that plenty of risks lie ahead for the Fed, always be on the lookout for ways that you can recession-proof your finances. Along with building up your emergency fund, experts say it comes down to living within your means, staying connected with your network, identifying your risk tolerance and staying focused on the long haul if you’re an investor.

“To relieve individuals, households and businesses of historically high inflation, the Fed has been prepared to accept the risk of a recession if it achieves the mandate of stable prices,” says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate senior economic analyst. “Choosing from the least of two evils, it isn’t dissimilar from when firefighters trade some damage from water for fire damage.”

(Visit Bankrate online at bankrate.com.)

©2023 Bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages retreated to 7.69% this week, down from near-8% the previous week, according to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders.

The slight reprieve doesn’t change the big picture, however. The average rate on 30-year home loans is at its highest level since the year 2000. The current run-up in mortgage rates reflects a variety of factors: a resilient U.S. economy, the Fed’s ongoing war on inflation and, more recently, a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which serve as an informal benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates.

That yield increase has cooled somewhat as investors look for less risk, giving prospective homebuyers some breathing room with lower mortgage rates.

“Finally, it looks as if the flight to safety has finally kicked in and the demand for 10-year Treasurys has jumped significantly, driving down the yield on these notes,” says Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University. “Long-term mortgage rates are closely tied to the performance of the 10-year.”

At the beginning of November, all eyes were on the Federal Reserve. The central bank sets policy that indirectly affects the cost of a mortgage. At the conclusion of its latest meeting on Nov. 1, the Federal Open Markets Committee decided to leave rates unchanged.

What happened to mortgage rates this week

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points.

Over the past 52 weeks, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has averaged 6.92%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.08%. Four weeks ago, that rate was 7.75%. The 30-year fixed-rate average for this week is 1.42 percentage points higher than the 52-week low of 6.27%.

As for other loans:

—The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.04%, down from 7.25% from a week ago.

—The 5/6 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) was 7.47%, up from 7.42% a week ago.

—The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage was 7.61%, down from 7.71% a week ago.

How mortgage rates affect home affordability

The national median family income for 2023 is $96,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in September 2023 was $394,300, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20% down payment and a mortgage rate of 7.69%, the monthly payment of $2,246 amounts to 28% of the typical family’s monthly income.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates has squeezed affordability and sparked a slowdown in home sales. First-time buyers are especially challenged by this market. Home prices haven’t fallen significantly, and values are unlikely to decline, given the shortage of homes for sale.

“Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market: reducing affordability for buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in for sellers,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. “The combination of reduced affordability and increased strength of the rate lock-in effect is likely to continue to suppress home sales because you can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it.”

Will mortgage rates go down?

Economists expected to see mortgage rates decrease by the end of 2023, but the strength of the U.S. economy has thrown a wrinkle into those predictions. So has the jump in 10-year Treasury yields.

The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts the 30-year fixed rate to fall to 7.2% by the end of the year — a prediction that’s nearly a full percentage point above its forecast from the prior month.

Mortgage rates are also chained to inflation, a metric the Fed has been moving to control. At its September and November meetings, the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged. While the Fed doesn’t directly set fixed mortgage rates, it does set the tone of the interest-rate environment — and as the central bank has boosted its policy rate from zero in early 2022 to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% now, mortgage rates have followed suit.

Learn more on where rates could be headed in our November 2023 mortgage rate forecast.

Methodology

The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.

(Visit Bankrate online at bankrate.com.)

©2023 Bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.