MIAMI GARDENS — The most important part of the Miami Dolphins’ schedule starts this week, and the focus, at least for fans and media, should be winning the AFC East, which would be their first division title since the 2008 season.
At the halfway point of the season, when strength of schedule actually has applicable significance, that mission looks pretty achievable if the Dolphins, who gained ground in the AFC playoff race on Sunday, can stop beating themselves.
Only three of Miami’s final eight opponents have a winning record. Four opponents are below .500, and one is at .500.
Miami (6-3), which leads the AFC East, must stay healthy and learn how to win close games against top-caliber opponents. Do that, and the division is theirs. Both tasks are tough, but well within Miami’s reach.
“I’m very, very happy about our pre-bye week season,” coach Mike McDaniel said.
At the end of Sunday’s games, Miami’s opponents had a combined 38-37 record (.507).
Among the three toughest remaining games — against Dallas (6-3), at Baltimore (7-3) and against Buffalo (5-4 heading into their Monday night game) — two are at home, where Miami is 4-0 this season and 10-2 under McDaniel.
Here’s some good news: Buffalo, which hosts Denver on “Monday Night Football”, probably has at least three additional losses among the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins, which would drop the Bills to 10-7. If they lose all four, they’ll finish no better than 9-8, practically ensuring the Dolphins the AFC East title.
Here’s more good news: Baltimore, which has had a fourth-quarter lead in every game this season, is still blowing late-game leads, even at home.
Let’s take a closer look at both of those Dolphins opponents.
While it’s true Buffalo’s Super Bowl window is closing, the Bills’ playoff window remains wide open, so they must be taken seriously at all times.
The Bills have eight games remaining, including the Broncos game. They then host the New York Jets (Nov. 19), then visit Philadelphia (Nov. 26) before their bye week. The Bills finish at Kansas City (Dec. 10), against Dallas (Dec. 17), at the Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday, Dec. 23), against New England (Dec. 31) and at Miami (Jan. 7). It’s a tough road ahead.
As for Baltimore’s habit of blowing late-game leads, it happened again against Cleveland on Sunday, as the Browns scored 16 fourth-quarter points to overcome a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and take the 33-31 victory.
Baltimore lost a narrow 14-13 fourth-quarter lead at home in its 22-19 overtime loss to Indianapolis.
You’ll recall the Dolphins scored 28 fourth-quarter points to snatch a road victory at Baltimore last season.
The Ravens, who finished 5-3 at home last year, blew a 13-6 fourth-quarter lead in last year’s home finale against Pittsburgh and lost, 16-13.
In Baltimore’s other home loss last season, a 23-20 decision against Buffalo, the Ravens had a 20-10 halftime lead but were held scoreless in the second half and outscored 3-0 in the fourth quarter.
Baltimore’s losses to Buffalo and Miami last season came with quarterback Lamar Jackson healthy. Jackson missed last season’s Pittsburgh loss.
So, that might be the big hope for the Baltimore game. Just stay close to the Ravens.
And keep learning whether it’s a victory or a loss. Miami’s six victories have been an obvious plus, McDaniel said.
Then he added, “But in the losses we got something out of it each time.”
McDaniel said the Dolphins “haven’t ran from any of our failures.”
The biggest thing working against the Dolphins is health. Miami is getting healthier overall. But it’s tough to expect a team so plagued by injuries over the last year and a half to suddenly experience lasting health.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health is atop the list. But there’s also Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead and the rest of the offensive line, Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (he’s taken a beating this season) and running back Raheem Mostert, to name a few.
There’s also Miami’s inability to stop beating itself in games against the best teams on its schedule.
The AFC East title is there for the Dolphins.
All they must do is take it.
