PHOENIX — Baseball can get a bit dicey at times, what with all the numbers we’re swimming through on a daily basis. You can quantify anything if you know where to look. For instance, the most striking statistic from this World Series comes from Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, a 35-year-old Houston native, who said that, until stifling the Rangers in Game 2, he hadn’t seen his grandmother in 12 years.
Second-most striking stat: Of the 20 innings played so far, the home team has led for all but 17, which sounds more one-sided than a series knotted at 1-1 might suggest.
The Rangers may lead the World Series in iconic moments, but the Diamondbacks have owned it, playing the type of small ball considered old school by the geeks running the game these days.
Meanwhile, the Rangers stand around waiting on Corey Seager or Adolis Garcia to chisel something historic.
For the most part in a magical, mystical season, this homer-or-go-home approach has served Bruce Bochy well. Certainly gave Dusty Baker the willies in the ALCS. But it seems to me when the power’s out it would serve you well to have a good Plan B.
Failing that, at least try to keep your opponent from going about business as usual.
The Rangers have done neither in this series, which probably accounts for the fact that you don’t feel as giddy about their prospects as you did after Adolis brought the house down around his ears.
First, let’s start with the D-backs, who came into this series with an unimpressive OPS of .688 against lefties in the playoffs. Even if that was a small sample size, it was only a few points less than their .711 during the regular season. The results suggested Jordan Montgomery could fare even better than he has already in the playoffs, and that Andrew Heaney, Martin Perez and even Will Smith might assume more significant roles.
Not so much, as it turns out. In the first two games, the D-backs are 15 for 39 against lefties, producing a devastating slash line of .385/.415/.538/.953.
Going into this series, I figured Heaney was a lock to start Game 4, with Perez the first man out of the bullpen in relief of Max Scherzer in Game 3. But after watching Perez die a death of a thousand cuts in Game 2, that no longer seems like such a good plan.
Remember when I said Jon Gray, who struck out four of the five batters he faced in Game 1, might be a better fit for relief in this series? Check that. He suddenly looms as the best possibility to start Game 4, depending on what happens Monday.
No matter who’s on the mound from here on out, it seems like it would be a good idea to, you know, give Nathaniel Lowe a little love over at first. Look his way occasionally. Because the D-backs are running wild over there. They’re 5 for 5 on stolen bases, a continuation of the style that got them here.
Arizona’s 166 stolen bases were second only to Cincinnati in the regular season. The Rangers? Twenty-seventh with 79. Funny thing is, they led MLB last year with 128. Baseball made big changes this year in an effort to open up the game. Limited the number of times a pitcher can throw over. Ballooned bases to the size of pizza boxes. And what did the Rangers do? Retreated into their shells.
Sure, they’ve run more often in the playoffs. Ten steals rank third behind Arizona (21) and Philadelphia (16). Yet, in this series, Adolis owns their only swipe.
Now, I’m not suggesting they suddenly shift gears, not with Gabriel Moreno, who has the best arm in baseball, lurking behind the plate. Besides, who’s running? The outfielders, for sure. Especially Evan Carter and Leody Taveras. Otherwise, the only other guy in the lineup with a green light is Marcus Semien. Except he can’t seem to find first.
His slash line of .200/.200/.200/.400 would be bad enough even if he weren’t also leading off. Don’t ask Bochy if he’s changing. Not happening. Carter might be an ideal fit at the top of the lineup, particularly because he sees so many pitches, but it’s a moot point.
A popular theory for Semien’s struggles at the plate is that he’s simply worn down from playing so many games, but I don’t buy it. For one thing, he still looks like a Gold Glover in the field, displaying excellent range. Seems more likely that the problem is his stubborn approach. Opponents have finally noticed he’s a dead pull hitter, and they’ve responded by pitching him away. A hitter is supposed to counteract that approach by going with the pitch, something Josh Jung, Lowe, Carter and Adolis do quite well. Semien continues to try to pull, resulting in pop-ups and roll-overs and weak contact.
If he’s not going to hit pitches the opposite way, Semien simply needs to see more of them. As it is, he’s failed to draw a walk in Games 1 and 2. He needs to get on base if it means taking one for the team.
Don’t get me wrong, all is not lost. The Rangers can still win three more. They’ve been a good road team all year and even better in the playoffs. The offense can ignite at any time. They’ve just go to be more proactive while waiting for the power to come back on.
One more thing: That stat on Merrill Kelly and his grandma? Believe it or not, he brought it up. Asked why it’s been so long, he actually said life gets in the way, stuff happens, baseball takes up a lot of time. Last I checked, there’s no baseball at Thanksgiving or Christmas. Hey, if you’re not doing anything this year, granny, win or lose, the turkey’s on us.
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