The system brewing near South Florida is an area of low pressure that already has brought a flooding threat to the state with a flood watch up the coast from Miami to Volusia County as well as inland portions of Brevard and Volusia counties.

The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Marathon, Big Pine Key and Key Colony Beach through 7 a.m. Wednesday as bands moved across the state.

The heavy rains that have already dropped as much as 5 inches through Tuesday in some places could combine with king tides along the state’s southeast coast to further the flood threat. The National Weather Service in Miami said some areas of South Florida could see well over 10 inches of rain through Thursday.

For Central Florida, the NWS in Melbourne said the region could see 20-25 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph along the coast and inland to about Interstate 95 and 15-20 mph winds with 30 mph gusts across the rest of east Central Florida. A wind advisory is in place through at least Thursday afternoon.

Coastal erosion is expected to continue as well with 6- to 9-foot large breaking waves, rough surf and wave runup to the dune line at high tide. Coastal Volusia is still recovering from severe erosion from hurricanes Ian and Nicole in 2022.

“During yesterday morning`s high tide, many beaches were completely covered by surf to the seawall and dunes, and waves were running up into access roads and walkways,” NWS forecasters said.

11/15 7AM Heavy Rainfall Threat Update: Confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for heavy rain beginning later this morning and continuing into Thursday.
Here are the latest probabilities in terms of rainfall amounts across the area. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/f3kXwXuIIm

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) November 15, 2023

It’s forecast to move to the northeast near the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. East Coast into the weekend.

“Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas during the next couple of days,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

In the southwestern Caribbean, the NHC has dialed back slightly the prediction of development of a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from a broad trough of low pressure.

“Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said.

It could threaten Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands in the coming days, the NHC warned.

“Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 50% chance in the next seven.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, has already produced 21 official systems and 19 named storms. The final available names from the year’s initial 21-name list are Vince and Whitney.

In its tropical outlook on Tuesday, the NHC said a broad trough of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter part of the week while moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said.

The system could bring rough weather to Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, the NHC warned.

“Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean, coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives the system a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.

1 pm EST Nov. 14: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the SW Caribbean by Thursday and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression late this week. Interests in the Greater Antilles should monitor this system's progress.https://t.co/DboWSR4Ct1 pic.twitter.com/9OnyMENUPx

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 14, 2023

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has had 21 official systems, including an unnamed subtropical storm in January and 20 more since the official start of the six-monthlong season that began on June 1.

Of those, 19 have gained at least tropical storm status and taken names from the 21-letter list provided by the World Meteorological Organization, which skips the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. The next name on the list is Vince.

The end of hurricane season is Nov. 30, but any system that develops in December would also be included in the 2023 tally.

The broad area of low pressure has disorganized showers and thunderstorms spanning the the central and western Caribbean Sea.

“Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America on Saturday,” forecasters said.

It’s expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central America on Friday and into the weekend.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has had 21 official systems including an unnamed subtropical storm in January and 20 systems since the start of hurricane season on June 1, 19 of which were named. The next name on the list is Vince followed by Whitney.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

The trough of low pressure now in the central Caribbean and headed west toward Central America features disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development over the next couple of days before the system moves inland over Central America by this weekend,” forecasters said.

The system will still potentially bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this week.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to form in the next two days and 30% chance in the next seven.

If it were to gain enough strength, it could become Tropical Storm Vince.

The first five months of the Atlantic #hurricane season are in the books. So far, June, August and September were above average, while July and October were near average based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The full season has met NOAA's definition of an above-normal season. pic.twitter.com/Wp5lpCIRna

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 31, 2023

The already above-average Atlantic hurricane season as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has had 21 tracked systems with at least tropical depression strength. While 20 of those came after the official start of the season on June 1, there was one unnamed subtropical storm in January.

Nineteen of the 20 storms after June 1 became tropical storms taking a name from the 21-letter list given by the World Meteorological Organization.

Seven of those became hurricanes, and three of those formed into major hurricanes including Hurricane Idalia that struck Florida in August.

Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

The trough of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea has a large area of showers and thunderstorms that has diminished on Tuesday so the NHC dialed back its estimation the system could develop.

“Although environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week,” forecasters said.

No matter if it develops or not, it’s expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Central America by the end of the week.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% chance in the next seven, down from a 70% chance prediction issued earlier Tuesday.

If it develops enough strength, it could become Tropical Storm Vince.

It would become the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season’s 22nd official system, which includes an unnamed subtropical storm that formed in January and 20 systems since the official start of the season on June 1.

Nineteen of those 20 grew to be named storms from the 21-letter list provided by the World Meteorological Organization, with only Vince and Whitney left before it would be necessary to spill over into a supplemental list that starts with the name Adria.

Only the years 2005 and 2020 had the need for more than 21 names from the initial list, which skips over the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z.

The end of the official hurricane season is on Nov. 30, although storms that form after that before the end of the calendar year would be included in the year’s official tally.

No longer a threat is a system about 80 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas with minimal thunderstorm activity that is moving north into an area of dry air that would thwart any potential development, the NHC said.

But the NHC upped the chances a trough of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean with a large area of showers and thunderstorms will develop as it continues to show signs of organization.

“This system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week as the system enters the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea.”

Heavy rain potential is forecast for portions of Central America by the end of the week no matter how much the system develops.

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% chance in the next seven.

If it gains enough strength, it could become Tropical Storm Vince. After Vince, the last name on the initial 21-letter list for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Whitney.

The area of low pressure now located in the southwestern Atlantic moved north after dropping rain over the eastern Caribbean islands this weekend and is now located a couple hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas with not well-defined surface circulation but still had winds near 40 mph.

“Shower and thunderstorm activity persists, but the system only has limited time to develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the
next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “By Tuesday, strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances for
further development as the system turns northward away from the northwestern Bahamas.”

10/28 – A surface trough in the eastern Caribbean and divergence aloft sustain a large area of showers and thunderstorms that is affecting #PuertoRico, #USVI and the Lesser Antilles. The weather will remain unstable through the weekend and into early next week in the region. pic.twitter.com/dZ2DhBrHiz

— NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) October 28, 2023

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days.

The NHC is also beginning to forecast a broad area of low pressure could form in the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea and form into a tropical system.

“Gradual development thereafter is possible while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

Meanwhile in the central Atlantic, the NHC gave its final advisory on what had been Tropical Storm Tammy.

As of 5 a.m., now Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy was located about 670 miles east of Bermuda moving east at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

The busy 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has already had 21 official systems including an unnamed subtropical storm in January and 20 systems since the official start of the season on June 1. Of those, 19 grew into at least tropical storms, of which seven formed into hurricanes.

The next system to form into a tropical storm would become Tropical Storm Vince with only Whitney left on the 21-letter initial storm name list before the NHC would have to venture into a supplemental list that starts with the name Adria.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

At 2 p.m., the NHC began tracking odds for a small area of low pressure that had formed about 120 miles northeast of the coast of the Dominican Republic with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward, east of the Bahamas. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by late Monday while the system turns northward east of the northwestern Bahamas,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

The NHC, though, dropped the odds of development for an area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea projected to pass over Cuba and then be parked southeast of Florida near the Bahamas by next week.

“Further development of this system appears unlikely while it drifts northward or north-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said.

The NHC is now only giving it a 10% chance to form in the next seven days.

If either were to gain strength, they could develop into the season’s 22nd official system and become Tropical Storm Vince.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Tammy moved away from Bermuda since Friday in the Atlantic.

As of 11 a.m., the center of Tammy was located about 360 miles east-northesat of Bermuda moving east at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

The system continues to lose steam after reforming as a tropical storm on Friday. The NHC had ceased tracking it when it was Hurricane Tammy on Thursday morning saying it had become an extratropical cyclone with a widespread windfield and an undefined center. But its characteristics returned to tropical status and the NHC began advisories again after a day.

A resurgent Tropical Storm #Tammy is supporting a large area of dangerous seas between #Bermuda and the #Bahamas. These wave heights will subside through Mon, just as wave heights build over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front . See https://t.co/26J6Uogt6o for more info. pic.twitter.com/3AGE0a4uNF

— NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) October 27, 2023

The NHC continues to warn of dangerous wave heights at sea as well as swells with rip current dangers for Bermuda.

The system had previously tracked by the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands making landfall on Barbuda.

Its forecast path now keeps it away from land and the NHC expects it will weaken further and become a post-tropical remnant low by early next week.

The NHC had given what they said would be their final advisory on what had been a long-churning Hurricane Tammy on Thursday morning, as of 11 a.m. Friday, the system had regained tropical characteristics.

By 11 p.m., it was located about 205 miles east of Bermuda moving north-northwest at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles.

“Gusty winds to near gale force are expected in Bermuda through tonight,” forecasters said.

The system is projected to swing back down into warmer tropical waters and remain a tropical storm into early next week.

“A turn toward the north and northeast is expected through early Saturday, followed by a faster eastward to east-southeastward motion on Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, Tammy will move away from Bermuda on Saturday,” forecasters said. “Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.”

The system had remained a hurricane after sweeping by the northern Leeward Islands earlier this week making landfall on Barbuda. Its winds were still near 85 mph when it lost its tropical characteristics, including a well defined eyewall with circulation around the center of the storm.

As the sun rises this morning, @NOAA's #GOESEast can see #Tammy, which is now a Post-Tropical Cyclone. This means it no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, it was still producing 85 mph (hurricane-force) winds at… pic.twitter.com/dT1OpJy9Ma

— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) October 26, 2023

Back in the western Caribbean Sea, the NHC is also tracking a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days.

“Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system early next week while it moves generally northward,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days, and 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The next name on the initial 21-letter Atlantic hurricane season storm name list is Vince followed by Whitney. The World Meteorological Organization skips the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. If all the names get used, a backup list starting with the name Adria would be used.

The hurricane season has already seen 21 official storm systems, which includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January, 19 systems that formed since the start of official hurricane season on June 1 that spun up to become at least tropical storms and take a name off the 21-letter list, and one tropical depression that formed and dissipated earlier this week without getting a name.

The hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, although storms that form before the end of the calendar year would be included in the official 2023 tally.

As of 5 am. in what will be the NHC’s last advisory, the center of Tammy was located about 395 miles east-southeast of Bermuda moving north at 12 mph. While no longer classified as a tropical cyclone, winds up to 85 mph was tracked and tropical-storm-force winds extend out nearly 200 miles.

“The system should begin to move northwestward later this Thursday morning, followed by a slower west-northwestward motion on Friday.” forecasters said. “Some weakening is expected during the next few days.”

The track has it approaching Bermuda, but then being sucked back eastward in the open Atlantic.

Tammy hit the Caribbean island of Barbuda on the weekend before moving north into the Atlantic.

Here's how the 2023 Atlantic #hurricane season stacks up with the average season through October 24th. Slightly to somewhat above average for all parameters, with named storms and named storm days being well above average to date. #Tammy pic.twitter.com/XgGXg6UEM9

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 25, 2023

Tammy’s named status continues to add on to the season’s tally of named storm days, which increased to 97 on Wednesday.

The season has seen 20 official systems including an unnamed subtropical storm in January and 19 systems that have formed since the official start of the hurricane season on June 1. Eighteen of those have grown to tropical-storm strength and taken a name from the 21-letter list of storm names set forth by the World Meteorological Organization.

Only the names Vince and Whitney remain on this year’s list with hurricane season running through Nov. 30.