GAINESVILLE — Florida heads to No. 14 Missouri as 11-point underdogs on a three-game losing streak with time running out.
The Gators (5-5, 3-4 SEC) have two chances to avoid the program’s first losing regular season since 2017 and first stretch of three consecutive campaigns ending below .500 since 1945-47.
But coach Billy Napier remains steadfast his program’s trajectory and long-term prospects are on track despite an 11-12 start at UF — the worst by a Gators coach since Charley Pell went 8-14-1 in 1979-80.
“You’re equipped with faith. You’re equipped with discipline, your ability to come up with solutions,” he explained Monday. “You’ve got to be tough-minded. You’ve got to have endurance. You’ve got to be able to persevere. You’ve got to surround yourself with really good people.
“It’s not like we thought we’re going to run the table the first year. It is what it is.”
Napier faces plenty of questions, along with some signs of hope, as he pushes to avoid a five-game skid to end Year.
Does Eli Drinkwitz’s fourth-year bounce at Mizzou bode well for Napier?
Picked to finish sixth in the SEC East, a spot behind the Gators, the Tigers (8-2, 4-2) are among the nation’s biggest surprises.
A contract extension and raise in November 2022 were surprising at the time, but proved to be a vote of confidence Drinkwitz has rewarded with a breakout season. The only losses were a 49-39 shootout loss at home to LSU and 30-21 decision at top-ranked Georgia undecided until late in the game.
Last Saturday’s 36-7 rout of Tennessee might be Drinkwitz’s signature victory. A win against Florida would be be another notch in the 40-year-old’s belt against a big-name brand.
Drinkwitz already had significantly improved the Tigers’ recruiting, signing three consecutive top-35 classes from 2021-23. The current crop features the nation’s top-rated edge rusher, Williams Nwaneri of Lees Summit, Mo.
Recognizing Missouri’s attack needed a boost, the offensive-minded coach gave up play calling duties after last season.
Drinkwitz’s self-awareness along with Missouri’s patience and support have paid off on the field. Whether Napier receives similar consideration remains the looming question.
Drinkwitz entered Year 4 in Columbia 17-19, a position Napier easily could find himself after a 2024 season with a young team facing arguably the toughest schedule in Florida history. Following in Missouri football’s footsteps is not Napier’s ultimate goal, but the 44-year-old should hope he and the Gators are on a similar path.
Has offense improved enough Napier will consider calling plays again in 2024?
UF’s attack has gained traction, developed young playmakers and scored more points since a sluggish start to 2023.
While there is a lot more to like lately, Florida’s offensive success should not necessarily convince Napier to stay the course.
The Gators averaged 34 points the past five games, but four of those performances were against SEC teams — Vanderbilt, LSU, South Carolina, Arkansas — allowing more yards per play than any school but Florida. Georgia, the SEC’s top defense, held the Gators to 20 points, one point more than UF averaged during the season’s first four contests against FBS competition.
Even as the offense has picked up, Florida has suffered too many empty possessions during its three-game losing streak. The Gators scored 12 touchdowns and kicked three field goals on 37 drives against Georgia, Arkansas and LSU, while recording 10 three-and-outs, fumbling twice and failing on a fourth-down try.
Florida conversion rate was 36.9% (17 of 46), including 20% on fourth down (1 of 5).
Quarterback Graham Mertz’s play has been a major plus, highlighted by an SEC-leading 73.3% completion rate along with 18 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Freshman receiver Eugene Wilson III is a future star while senior Ricky Pearsall, with 876 yards, is on pace to become the first 1,000-yard receiver at UF since Taylor Jacobs in 2002.
Yet, UF completed just two throws longer than 30 yards the past two games and has an SEC-low 11 such pass plays in an era when chunk plays are pivotal. LSU had five 30-yarders against the Gators, including two in one drive.
Florida will face high-scoring offense and much better defenses in Missouri and FSU. The Tigers are 31st in scoring offense (32.8) and 44th in scoring defense (22.3); FSU is 13th (38.3) and 15th (17.3). If the Gators cannot keep pace, the recent offensive success might have been a facade.
What’s with Austin Armstrong?
The defensive coordinator was the program’s golden boy after four games. He since has been no better than predecessors Patrick Toney and Todd Grantham.
The 2023 D has fallen from No. 10 nationally after to Week 4 to 75th after allowing a school-record 701 yards in a 52-35 loss at LSU last weekend.
It gets worse.
The Gators are 129th of 133 teams in yards allowed per play (6.57) and last in pass plays yielded of 40 yards or longer. Four teams have fewer than Florida’s 7 takeaways.
UF is 93rd in red-zone defense, 96th in sacks and 106th in tackles for loss.
Among the culprits are leading tackler Shemar James’ season-ending knee injury, sophomore cornerback Devin Moore’s inability to stay healthy, shaky play by experienced corners Jason Marshall Jr. and Jalen Kimber and a youth movement featuring true freshmen accruing around 30% of snaps.
LSU star quarterback Jayden Daniels’ 85-yard touchdown run was to a side of the field featuring three first-year players, cornerback Ja’Keem Jackson and safeties Jordan Castell and Bryce Thornton.
Armstrong’s approach also deserves examination. The 30-year-old relied heavily on man-to-man coverage at LSU, allowing Daniels to take off with defenders’ backs to him and pick up long gains.
During the Arkansas loss, the Gators repeatedly blitzed quarterback KJ Jefferson from the outside despite his inconsistency as a passer. This allowed him to lean on his strength with runs up the middle against a defense without starting linemen Cam Jackson and Tyreak Sapp.
Armstrong quickly appeared an upgrade, but like Toney and Grantham is overseeing one of Florida’s worst-ever defenses.
Does a cold shoulder await on the road?
Leaving the Sunshine State for November’s nippy conditions has not been kind to the Gators. During the past 10 seasons, they’ve played four games in sub-50 degree conditions and lost three.
The Gators fell 36-17 in 2013 at Missouri, where the temperature was 45 at kickoff. A 28-20 loss in 2017 at South Carolina kicked off when it was 49. Then there was last season’s 31-24 debacle at Vanderbilt on a 38-degree day.
The only Florida win in chilly conditions was a 23-6 decision during Barry Odom’s final season at Missouri in 2019, when the thermometer read 43 at kickoff.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s Saturday night. A Midwestern chill and Napier’s 2-8 record away from the Swamp could leave the Gators out in the cold.
Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com
