After covering politics in Florida for more than a quarter century, I’ve watched Democrats fumble races, fight amongst themselves and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory more times than I can count.
Lately, however, we seem to be living in a Bizzaro World where Florida Republicans are the ones acting like guests on a chair-throwing episode of the Jerry Springer Show.
The governor is feuding with former allies like Randy Fine. Fine says DeSantis emboldens neo-Nazis. DeSantis says Fine is a joke of a petty politician. (Democrats say both men are finally making sense.)
In Seminole County, the GOP elections supervisor says his fellow Republicans are a bunch of racists while Republican party leaders suggest their party’s supervisor is unfit to hold office. (Again, Democrats are like: Wait, let’s hear them all out.)
Even the party’s top trollers are in such a meltdown mode that they’re sniping at each other instead of Democrats. At last weekend’s Republican gathering in Orlando, DeSantis’ chief troller, Christina Pushaw, got into a clash with right-wing provocateur Laura Loomer that culminated with Pushaw telling Loomer that she was such a loser, she’ll never even find a “devoted husband.” (Imagine a Springer episode where both cringey guests are happen to be trusted advisors to a governor and former U.S. president.)
You are hysterically jealous of Florida’s First Lady because she has what you will never have: A loving and devoted husband who is always there for her and their kids, in sickness and in health.
It’s not too late for you to find love too – but behaving like this isn’t the way… https://t.co/VO7QMmyWmX
— Christina Pushaw 🐊 🇺🇸 (@ChristinaPushaw) November 5, 2023
The chaos would seem to tee up Florida Democrats to do something they’ve rarely done over the past three decades — win. Yet this past week’s primary elections featured some of the familiar, ominous signs for the party.
The most palpable evidence was here in Central Florida in the state’s most-watched legislative race — a special election in House District 35 where Democrats actually have a slight voter-registration advantage.
Basically, if Democrats can’t win a race like this, they’re doomed. Enter the Florida Dems, saying: Hold our beer …
First of all, party leaders couldn’t agree upon which of their three candidates they liked best. Many institutional Dems, everyone from Hillary Clinton to a former state party chair, backed one candidate (Marucci Guzman). Many of the grassroots progressives backed another (Rishi Bagga).
So which of those two won? Neither.
The winner received the least financial support, Navy veteran Tom Keen, who loaned his own campaign nearly half the money he raised.
That means one of two things: Either party leaders and loyalists funneled so much of their resources to two different candidates that they split the vote, allowing the least-resourced candidate to prevail. Or Keen was always the guy that their voters wanted even as donors funneled cash to literally everyone in the race except him. Neither scenario inspires confidence.
Guzman was supported by many establishment Dems, including Hillary Clinton.
Bagga was supported by many die-hard progressives, including the progressive caucus & Young Dems.
Keen had the least institutional support – and won.The Dem party and its voters aren't on the same page. pic.twitter.com/i6o3TxwUeF
— Scott Maxwell (@Scott_Maxwell) November 8, 2023
But there’s something else about this race in Orange and Osceola counties that should concern Democrats even more: Very few even bothered to vote … yet again.
Even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in this district, more Republicans showed up to cast ballots Tuesday. That is a very bad sign.
Yes, it was just a primary. Yes, turnout was low for everyone. But turnout is always a measure of voter enthusiasm. And the bottom line is that more Republicans cared enough about this election to get off their duffs and cast a ballot. (Or even remain on their duffs and just mail in a ballot.)
The Republican turnout advantage wasn’t giant. About 20% of Republicans turned out vs. 18% of Democrats. But here’s the thing: Florida Democrats have no room for error. They trail Republicans statewide. To win, they have to overperform and fetch independents. Instead, they’re underperforming. Again.
Some may argue that turnout in a primary isn’t a reflection of what turnout will be in a general election. But it often is.
In fact, last year, when I made a similar observation about how foreboding it was that Democrats didn’t show up to vote in the primaries, I was inundated with responses from Democrats who told me what an idiot I was. They argued primary turnout was irrelevant and that — just you wait — Democrats would show up when it counted in the general.
Except they didn’t. Republican turnout dwarfed Democratic turnout in the fall of 2022 with margins of 70% to 50% in some counties. And Florida Democrats got absolutely slaughtered, even as Democrats nationally outperformed expectations.
A really foreboding sign for Dems:
It looks like more Republicans cast ballots than Dems – even though there were no big GOP races at the top of the ticketAs of now:
1.4m votes in Dem guv's race
1.5 m in GOP ag commishHuge enthusiasm/turnout gap.
And that's what decides races— Scott Maxwell (@Scott_Maxwell) August 24, 2022
This isn’t rocket science. Turnout is key. You can’t win races unless your voters cast ballots.
Some Democrats seem to get this. Orlando Democratic Rep. Anna Eskamani, for instance, launched something called a “People Power” initiative that is all about trying to get more people registered, to the polls and involved in the process.
Democrats also posted an unexpected big win in a competitive mayoral race in Jacksonville earlier this year.
And the party did something encouraging Tuesday night. Less than an hour after the results were in, the state party sent out a release saying it was uniting behind Keen — who’s actually a solid candidate as a decorated former flight officer and aerospace-and-simulation industry professional who received some lower-profile endorsements in the primary.
It may sound obvious for party members to unite behind their party’s nominee. But that obviosity has often eluded Florida Democrats. After Charlie Crist won the party’s gubernatorial primary last year, the reaction wasn’t universal support. Instead, many party loyalists kept on griping that Crist wasn’t progressive enough. They griped right up until the point when Democrats lost the race by a historic margin.
The most staggering statistic: Florida Democrats haven’t unseated a single Republican incumbent from a statewide office in more than three decades, even when Democrats had the voter-registration advantage.
Yes, Republicans have tried to suppress turnout — especially among minorities as the governor has staged menacing press events touting the voting arrests of dark-skinned Democrats while largely ignoring the White residents of The Villages caught voting multiple times and who were allowed to walk away with slaps on the wrist.
In Florida, not all voter fraud is considered equal | Commentary
And yes, Republicans have more money from the state’s leading special interests who count on the party doing them favors. Republicans have built-in electoral advantages.
But the biggest reason Republicans in Florida keep winning is that they make inroads with independent voters and keep showing up to vote.
And because they rally behind their candidates — even when those candidates are fighting with each other, calling each other unfit for office or generally acting like cringey talk-show guests.
smaxwell@orlandosentinel.com
